Sen. Susan Collins’s chances of winning reelection are a “toss-up,” according to an analysis from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics that shows the battle for control of the Senate is getting more competitive.
The last Senate Republican from New England, Ms. Collins is running for a fifth term in Maine and is likely to face off against state House Speaker Sara Gideon.
“We’ve resisted this change for a while, but it’s become apparent to us that Collins is in for a very close race, even if she may retain a lead at this precise moment,” Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman write in their breakdown of the 2020 election.
With Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama expected to lose re-election, Democrats need to flip four seats to reach a split in the Senate, which would make the vice president the tie-breaking vote.
Democrats are now favored to win the special election in Arizona, where Sen. Martha McSallly is running against likely Democratic nominee Mark Kelly, and Democrats are favored to flip Sen. Cory Gardner’s seat in Colorado.
Ms. McSally was appointed to the seat by Gov. Doug Ducey after Sen. John McCain died.
“We came away from 2018 a bit skeptical of McSally as a candidate: She lost to now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) by about 2.5 points and McSally was not quite able to translate her impressive background as an accomplished Air Force pilot into an appealing persona as a candidate,” they said.
They said she has had trouble consolidating the right-wing of the party and trails Mr. Kelly in fundraising.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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